Weather Prediction Test

Technical Manual

Script Author: Katja Borchert, Ph.D. (katjab@millisecond.com), Millisecond

Created: January 20, 2016

Last Modified: January 01, 2023 by K. Borchert (katjab@millisecond.com), Millisecond

Script Copyright © Millisecond Software, LLC

Background

This script implements the Weather Prediction Test , a test of probabilistic learning.

References

Knowlton, B.J, Squire, L.R, Gluck, M.A (1994). Probabilistic classification learning in amnesia. Learn Mem, 1, 106 –120.

Duration

25 minutes

Description

Participants see combinations of 4 (weather) cue cards (Max number of cues presented at the same time: 3) and have to predict the weather outcome (rain vs. sunshine) based on the different cue patterns within 5s.

All cue patterns predict a weather outcome (e.g sunshine) with a predetermined probability. There are four possible cue outcome association strengths with outcome1: 75%, 58%, 43%, or 26% (approximately) with outcome 1. Feedback is given based on the actual weather outcome. Script tracks whether participants select the more probable outcome for the pattern (even if the less probable outcome was the actual outcome) across 7 blocks of 50 trials as well as for every 10 trials during the first block.

Procedure

7 test blocks:
Each Block with 50 trials with pattern frequencies according to predetermined probabilities as outlined in file Probabilities.xlsx
(also see section Editable lists list.patternFrequency)

- order of pattern is randomized with the constraint that consecutive patterns are different
- actual outcomes are determined according to predetermined outcome probabilities (not frequencies) for each pattern
(see Editable lists list.p_outcome1 and list.outcomeprobabilities_pattern1 etc.)

- feedback based on actual prediction (NOT based on selecting the more probable outcome)

- participants have 5s (default) to respond. If no response is give within that time frame, the computer assumes the wrong prediction
(both actual and probable) were made.

- the cue cards get randomly allocated to be cue1 to cue4 for each participant

- by default, cue positions are randomly determined (if more than 1 card)

- an optional horizontal Prediction Bar can be presented at the top of the screen:
The bar consists of a green and a red segment.
At the beginning, both segments are of equal size. The green segment
grows with each correct prediction (while the red shrinks) and it shrinks with each
incorrect prediction (while the red on grows) throughout the task.

trial sequence:
3 cues (Max: 5000ms, response reminder after 2000ms)->Feedback based on actual prediction (2000ms) -> ITI (default: 500ms)

Stimuli

provided by Millisecond, see section Editable Stimuli

Instructions

provided by Millisecond, see section Editable Instructions

Summary Data

File Name: weatherpredictiontest_summary*.iqdat

Data Fields

NameDescription
inquisit.version Inquisit version number
computer.platform Device platform: win | mac |ios | android
startDate Date the session was run
startTime Time the session was run
subjectId Participant ID
groupId Group number
sessionId Session number
elapsedTime Session duration in ms
completed 0 = Test was not completed
1 = Test was completed
Summary Variables
Note: Responses To Pattern 6 And 9 Were Excluded From Summary Variables As Probabilities For Either Outcome Was P = 0.5
propProbableChoiceOverall Overall proportion of probable choice responses (probable choice = selecting the outcome with p > 0.5 for the given cue pattern)
propProbableChoice1-
propProbableChoice7 Proportion of probable choice responses in block 1-7
Block1: The Choices Of The First Block Are Further Analyzed By Groups Of 10 Trials
propProbableChoiceBlock11to10 Proportion of probable choice responses in block 1, trials 1-10
propProbableChoiceBlock111to20 Proportion of probable choice responses in block 1, trials 11-20
propProbableChoiceBlock121to30 Proportion of probable choice responses in block 1, trials 21-30
propProbableChoiceBlock131to40 Proportion of probable choice responses in block 1, trials 31-40
propProbableChoiceBlock141to50 Proportion of probable choice responses in block 1, trials 41-50

Raw Data

File Name: weatherpredictiontest_raw*.iqdat

Data Fields

NameDescription
build Inquisit version number
computer.platform Device platform: win | mac |ios | android
date Date the session was run
time Time the session was run
subject Participant ID
group Group number
session Session number
blockCode Name of the current block
blockNum Number of the current block
trialCode Name of the current trial
trialNum Number of the current trial
cue4 Store the itemnumber of the cues randomly assigned to be used as cue1-cue4
countTestBlock Keeps track of the number of Test Blocks run
pattern Stores the current cue pattern
(e.g. "1000" -> only cue1 is presented)
currentCue1-
currentCue4 Stores the current itemnumber of the presented cue (0 = empty)
pOutcome1 Stores the probability of outcome 1 associated with the current cue pattern
pOutcome2 Stores the probability of outcome 2 associated with the current cue pattern
outcome Actual selected outcome
1 = outcome1
2 = outcome2
(assigned based on predetermined probabilities)
response The participant's response (selected response button)
latency The response latency (in ms) measured from cue onset
correctOutcomePrediction 1 = correct actual outcome was predicted
0 = prediction was incorrect
probableOutcomePrediction 1 = probable outcome for the pattern was predicted (=> outcome with a probability of 0.5 or above was selected)
0 = otherwise
responses to pattern 6 and 9 were excluded from summary variables as probabilities for either outcome was p = 0.5
propProbableChoice Proportion of more probable outcome response per block
responses to pattern 6 and 9 were excluded from summary variables as probabilities for either outcome was p = 0.5

Parameters

The procedure can be adjusted by setting the following parameters.

NameDescriptionDefault
outcome1 Stores the itemnumber of outcome1 (here: 1 -> sunshine)
outcome2 Stores the itemnumber of outcome2 (here: 2 -> rain)
outcome1Label The label for outcome1 "sunshine"
outcome2Label The label for outcome2 "rain"
responseWindow The response window in ms (here: 5000ms)
reminder The reminder delay (in ms) that reminds participants to respond (here: after 2000ms)
feedbackDuration The duration (in ms) of the feedback stimuli (here: 2000ms)
iti Intertrial interval in ms 500ms
randomCuePositions True = cues appear with random horizontal positioning (default)
if only 1 cue card is presented, it is always presented in the center
the random positioning refers to trials that present more than 1 cue card.
false = cues appear in 4 dedicated screen locations
presentpredictionBar True = presents a horizontal Prediction Bar at the top of the screen.
The bar consists of a green and a red segment.
At the beginning, both segments are of equal size. The green segment
grows with each correct prediction (while the red shrinks) and it shrinks with each
incorrect prediction (while the red one grows) throughout the task (default)
false = does not present the Prediction Bar